The collective mind at Intrade.com ( folks whom are putting real money on the line regarding the outcome of the US presidential election ) has within the past two weeks, abruptly changed its Obama bias. Odds for his victory have fallen markedly from levels above 65% in July, to what is now slightly below 50%.
Meanwhile, shares of McSame have risen to an all time high..
Even money. Nuetral. Equilibrium. A statistical dead heat. A virtual coin toss.
That’s the new message.
Expect more volatility in these contracts as the debates transpire and the vote draws near.
dear tj : none that i’m aware of , sorry
I wonder if there are any derivatives positions you could establish to realize gains when either candidate starts to show the winning bias. Maybe some out-of-the-money options on health insurance and defense indexes?